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Tobacco production down in U.S.

WASHINGTON,D.C.-U.S. tobacco production is forecast at 1.53 billion pounds as of September 1, according to the USDA-ERS. The 1998 crop is 14% lower than last year because of an 8% decline in acreage and lower yields. Grower prices have been higher than a year earlier.

The supply of U.S.-grown tobacco for 1998/99 will likely change little as higher carryin is offset by decreased production. Carryin of U.S.-grown stocks is likely to increase about 10% from a year earlier due to lower cigarette production and exports. Total stocks of imported leaf fell 7% to 1.18 billion pounds on July 1, 1998, compared a year earlier.

Estimated U.S.-grown leaf use declined about 1%, to 1.44 billion pounds in 1997/98, from 1.54 billion pounds in 1996/97. The slide in U.S.-grown leaf use stems from the fall in cigarette production and declining leaf exports. Imported leaf use increased in 1997/98. The proportion of foreign-grown leaf used in cigarette production will to increase slightly. U.S. leaf tobacco exports in 1997/98 (July-June) fell 16%, reaching 452 million pounds, declared weight.

Flue-Cured. As of September 1, the 1998 flue-cured crop was 771.9 million pounds, 26% below 1997. On-farm carryover this year was about 48.2 million pounds. Consequently, this season marketings will likely total about 800 million pounds, exceeding production. Beginning stocks on July 1, were 1.25 billion pounds, 12% above 1997. The total 1998 supply of U.S.-grown flue-cured was estimated at 2.05 billion pounds, slightly below 1997. Use may decline this season from 1997/98抯 877.7 million pounds because of lower cigarette production and exports. Flue-cured exports dipped to their lowest level since 1942.

Flue-cured sales began July 21; by September 10, growers had sold 401.3 million pounds of leaf, with 17% going under loan. Quality, rated good, is similar to last year. After 30 days of selling, flue-cured auction prices are 2.8 cents per pound higher than last season. Sales through September 10 averaged $1.67 per pound. Lower marketings in 1998 will more than offset higher prices and result in lower cash receipts for the season.

Burley. This year burley crop will be 4% above last season because of greater harvested acreage and higher yields. Production and farm carryover will probably exceed 690 million pounds, but quota restrictions may limit marketings to about 670 million pounds. Beginning stocks in 1998 may be about 60 million pounds more than in 1997 due to reduced domestic use. Burley supplies on October 1 will increase as 1998 production and carryin both advance.

Other types. Larger crops are forecast for dark air-cured and dark fire-cured, while Maryland and cigar tobacco production will to decline.