1 of 5
Bianca Hinrichsen, managing director, Hertz & Selck. Photo credit: Thomas Schmid
2 of 5
David Lee, c.m.o., Besuki Raya Cigars. Photo credit: Thomas Schmid
3 of 5
Frank Sze, founder & managing director, Ideotech (PIXL). Photo credit: Thomas Schmid
4 of 5
Hugo Azinheira, executive director global research & innovation, Filtrona. Photo credit: Thomas Schmid
5 of 5
Waqas Khan, global c.e.o., Clew. Photo credit: Thomas Schmid
Tobacco Asia picked the brains of a random selection of high-level executives to forecast what lies ahead for the tobacco sector.
When it comes to predicting the future of tobacco, industry insiders often outperform meteorologists. Their forecasts—grounded in market data, consumer behavior, and regulatory rumblings—offer a compelling glimpse into what 2026 may throw at us. From fusion flavors to biodegradable filters, and from big puff vapes to the meteoric rise of nicotine pouches, the year ahead promises transformation and innovation… but also no shortage of challenges.
Fusion forward: the flavor renaissance
Bianca Hinrichsen, managing director of Hertz & Selck, sees 2026 as the year fusion flavors take center stage across tobacco-adjacent categories. “No more single flavors like banana and pineapple,” she explains, “but always in a mix—Black Forest Gateau, Tropical Fruit Basket… and perhaps with a bit of cream, roasted notes, or tobacco undertones.”
While this change reflects consumers’ desire for complexity, it runs counter to the expected tightening of regulations, particularly in Europe. Hinrichsen notes that the anticipated rollout of TPD3 will heavily influence flavor development, particularly in vaping, heated tobacco, and modern oral products. “We’re all very excited to see what TPD3 will bring,” she says, acknowledging the regulatory uncertainty.
Asia remains a stronghold for bold flavoring in 2026, especially menthol. “As soon as you get to Asia, you can’t really have enough menthol,” Hinrichsen observes. Yet even there, fusion flavors are gaining ground, tailored to regional preferences.
The rise of white nicotine pouches marks a broader shift from tobacco to nicotine-centric products. Hinrichsen sees this as an opportunity to apply familiar flavor profiles from sweets, cocktails, and savory snacks to new formats. “It’s okay to be a little crazy,” she laughs, referencing the occasional outlandish request. “We don’t have Leberkäse [Bavarian meat loaf] in our range right now, but it’s okay to go in that direction if there is demand for it.”
Ultimately, Hinrichsen predicts moderate organic growth across the flavor sector, driven by project-based innovation and global expansion. “We define the goal and then look at how we can achieve it,” she says. “And sometimes completely new, very exciting things emerge.”
Small format, big opportunity: cigars in a changing economy
David Lee, c.m.o. of PT. Besuki Raya Cigars (BRC), believes 2026 will be shaped by economic realities and shifting demographics. “Demand for low- to medium-priced cigars will be higher than for premium cigars,” he predicts. “Cuban premium cigars have a legendary reputation, but their pricing nowadays is relatively too expensive for many people to afford.”
Lee sees younger consumers driving growth in lighter, smaller formats. “They don’t want to start out with the heavyweights,” he explains. “Their favorite formats are smaller sized ones with soft fillers, because they’re easy to smoke.” BRC’s own El Gaucho Chiquitos line exemplifies this trend. “We really underestimated the initial market response,” Lee admits. “We had run out of stock after only three months after we released the line in 2022.” The Chiquitos—hand-rolled, yet at an affordable price point—offer a compelling alternative to pricier Cuban and Dominican options.
Lee also anticipates seasoned smokers shifting to more economical choices. “Money is tighter these days,” he says, “so more seasoned cigar smokers will probably shift to cheaper cigars.” He adds that some consumers may transition from cigarettes to cigars, viewing them as a less harmful option. “I’m not saying that smoking cigars is healthy,” he clarifies, “but it is much healthier than other tobacco products, because you do not inhale cigar smoke.”
In 2026, Lee expects the cigar sector to balance tradition with accessibility, catering to both newcomers and veterans. “It’s a fantastic opportunity for us to get into more markets,” he says, “especially since New World cigars tend to keep raising their prices through the roof.”
Puff politics: vaping’s legal and consumer crossroads
Frank Sze, founder of Ideotech and creator of PIXL, one of the UK’s leading vape brands, sees 2026 as a pivotal year for the vaping sector. “Big puff products are already booming,” he says, “and I think that trend will become ever stronger.” Sze credits the success of legal big puff devices—like PIXL’s 8000-puff 2-plus-10 model—with converting consumers from the illicit market. “The consumer really bought into the idea,” he notes.
Yet the regulatory landscape is shifting, too. “Our inaugural model was the PIXL 6000, but that was a disposable, now banned in the UK since June 1, 2025.” And other countries are following suit with disposable bans. “In Germany and France disposables have already been banned,” Sze confirms. While some consumers are motivated by environmental concerns, others simply prefer the convenience of reusable devices. “It’s much easier to dispose of a pod than dispose of a device with an integrated battery,” he explains, citing German recycling habits.
Nevertheless, Sze also warns that bans may inadvertently fuel the grey market. “I’ve heard that presently 70% of all vapes sold in Europe are more or less fake or illicit or contain banned substances,” he says. “Yet they are sold quite openly.” He believes the EU retail sector needs 8-12 months to phase out non-compliant products. “We must educate consumers and retailers alike,” he insists. Brand loyalty and product quality will be key differentiators in the coming year. “It’s also a matter of convincing consumers they don’t need an open tank product with leakage everywhere.”
In 2026, Sze expects the vape market to consolidate around compliant, high-performance devices, with consumer education and regulatory clarity driving the transition.
Filters in flux: sustainability and the ESG imperative
Hugo Azinheira, executive director for global research & innovation at Filtrona, sees sustainability as the defining theme for filters in 2026. “There will be an increased interest in biodegradability, sustainability, and of course all the ESG credentials,” he asserts.
The surge already began in 2023, driven by the EU’s Single-Use Plastics Directive (SUPD) and Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) regulations. “We shared over 300 samples of filters made out of sustainable materials in 2023,” Azinheira recalls. But, interest waned in 2024 and 2025 as companies shifted to internal r&d. “Most of them now have internal solutions and they are ready,” he says. But Azinheira predicts a resurgence in 2026, led by multinational launches. “There are a few companies that we know typically are followers; and they will follow [the multinationals] suit,” he adds.
He also sees cellulose acetate manufacturers reinventing themselves. “They are not addressing the plastic aspect but rather the carbon footprint and recyclability,” he explains. Despite that progress, Azinheira doesn’t foresee the demise of acetate filters just yet. “No, not next year. Absolutely not,” he says. Instead, he anticipates coexistence between non-wovens and sustainable materials. Beyond filters, Azinheira notes rising interest in reduced-risk products, particularly heat sticks. “We’re receiving inquiries from independents… interested to launch products, not necessarily on the device part but rather on the consumable part,” he reveals. Oral tobacco products is another sector to watch. “All the multinationals are looking into it,” Azinheira says. “I’m not sure if it’s all going to happen in 2026, but definitely in the next couple of years.”
Pouch power: the rise of a US$100 billion category
Waqas Khan, global c.e.o. of Clew, is unequivocal about the future of nicotine pouches. “The category is exploding,” he declares. “Certain markets are even growing at a 5 or 6 x multiplier.” Khan forecasts a market cap exceeding US$100 billion within 5-6 years. “It already was a US$250 million market globally when pouches first emerged about a decade ago,” he says. “Right now, it’s trending at close to US$8 billion.”
Originally a Nordic phenomenon, pouches now dominate in the US, which accounts for 55% of global consumption. “Vaping is transitioning to pouches,” Khan explains. And his own brand, Clew, is expanding rapidly, too, with hubs in Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia. “We are already present in duty free shops at Dubai, Beirut, and Bangkok airports, and we should be in at least 10 others across the US and even Japan by the end of 2025,” he notes.
Regulatory frameworks are evolving as well. “Not more than 5% of the markets across the world have any regulations on pouches,” Khan says. But he expects that to change. “My forecast for 2026 is that a majority of the markets around the globe will either roll out regulations or at least begin working them out in earnest.” Clew’s experience navigating diverse regulatory environments—from natural health product classification in Canada to halal certification in Malaysia—illustrates the complexity. “In Thailand, we are registering Clew as a pharmaceutical product,” Khan adds.
Education remains a challenge. “When I introduced pouches [in Egypt], people thought they were for eating,” he laughs. “We are teaching them now how to use a pouch.” And innovation will be key. “Right now everybody’s talking about nicotine pouches,” Khan says. “But you will see a lot more innovation in the pouch format in 2026 and beyond.”
2026, a year of transformation
From fusion flavors to biodegradable filters, and from big puff vapes to the global rise of nicotine pouches, 2026 promises to be a year of transformation; sometimes foreseeable, sometimes emerging totally out of the blue. As regulations tighten and consumer preferences evolve, the tobacco industry is poised to adapt, innovate, and—perhaps most importantly—educate. If our interviewees’ predictions hold true, the sector may look very different by this time next year.