1 of 5
Nicotine pouch growth may soon stall amid bans, taxes, and new laws. Photo credit: Jakubdrastich2,CC4.0.
2 of 5
Erwin Henriques, head of nicotine research, Euromonitor International.
3 of 5
Patrik Strömer, secretary general, Association of Swedish Snus Manufacturers.
4 of 5
Sweden achieved smoke-free status largely due to the widespread use of snus and nicotine pouches. Photo credit: Lisa Risager, CC.2.0.
5 of 5
Global retail sales of nicotine pouches saw a 50.5% year-on-year growth in 2024. Photo credit: Jonathan Cooper, Pexels
As nicotine pouches continue to grow in popularity, the European Union remains divided on how to tax and regulate them.
Modern oral nicotine (MON) products are growing at a rate most industries can only dream of. According to business intelligence firm Euromonitor International, global retail sales of nicotine pouches reached 23.462 billion units in 2024—up from 15.592 billion units the year before, marking a 50.5% year-on-year increase. This growth even outpaced the previous year’s 43.7% jump. Research and Markets estimates the global MON market will be worth US$6.37 billion in 2025.
With 13.96 billion units sold in 2024 according to Euromonitor data, the United States is the clear global leader. Europe is another key region—particularly Sweden, the other Nordic countries, the UK, Germany, and Poland—while Asia-Pacific, led by Pakistan, is forecast to be the fastest-growing region.
“It is key that geographic expansion beyond countries with experience with oral products such as the US or Sweden is the next step for nicotine pouches,” says Erwin Henriquez, head of nicotine research at Euromonitor. “They have to go out, they have to go into more countries, and they have to convince consumers that they are a good alternative for nicotine consumption.”
In the EU, however, the category’s trajectory may soon be thwarted by disproportionate taxation—or, in the worst case, outright bans, which several member states have already enacted in the absence of harmonized EU-wide legislation. In February 2025, France joined the Netherlands, Latvia, Germany, and Belgium in banning nicotine pouches, citing concerns over youth appeal and similarities to snus, such as the “possibility of discreet and invisible use.” The ban in France extends not only to manufacture, import, export, sale, and distribution but also to possession. Fines can reach up to €375,000 (US$433,114) or 5 years in prison. By contrast, heroin possession in France typically carries a fine of €3,200 and up to 1 year in prison.
Other countries, such as Spain, are proposing to limit nicotine content to less than 1 mg—a de facto ban, as 99% of current products would be eliminated. Due to slower absorption through oral mucosa compared to cigarettes, pouches require higher nicotine content to provide a similar “kick.” Most popular brands contain between 3 and 20 mg.
Call for taxation
The category faces further headwinds: in early June, 15 EU finance and economy ministers—led by France and the Netherlands—called on the European Commission to tax vapes and nicotine pouches. The letter formed part of broader pressure for the Commission to update the long-awaited Tobacco Excise Tax Directive (TED), last revised in 2011, which still excludes novel nicotine products. These are currently taxed differently across member states.
While preparatory work is still underway, Euractiv reported on June 12 that an internal impact assessment suggested nicotine pouches could be taxed at €143/kg. By comparison, the document proposed raising cigarette taxes by 139% (from €90/1,000 units to €215/1,000) and rolling tobacco taxes by 258% (from €60/kg to €215/kg).
Adopting the revised TED would require unanimous approval from all EU member states. However, Italy, Greece, and Romania—which have lower taxes on novel products and have made significant investments in the tobacco and nicotine sector—have urged the Commission not to lump reduced-risk products like heated tobacco together with traditional cigarettes.
Member states are split. Proponents of high taxation, such as France and the Netherlands, cite unknown long-term health risks and argue that novel products offer tobacco companies a backdoor into markets under the guise of harm reduction. Opponents warn that overtaxing such products could encourage illicit trade and reduce tax revenues.
Henriquez, referencing the complex political dynamics, expects tighter regulations around taxation and product characteristics within the next 5 years but hopes they will be science-based and grounded in the tobacco harm reduction continuum. “Taxation will initially help prevent youth uptake due to limited disposable income,” he says. “Long-term, though, it won’t have much impact. I think the recent experience with vaping has regulators very spooked about how quickly youth use can grow. But there’s no indication that young people are taking up nicotine pouches—in contrast to vapes, they’re simply too discreet to be seen as cool.”
Sweden as a model?
Despite increasing restrictions, the EU is far from reaching its goal of becoming smoke-free by 2040, defined by the World Health Organization (WHO) as less than 5% average smoking prevalence. Rates have dropped from around 28–29%in 2011, when the current TED was adopted, to about 24–25% today. So far, only Sweden has achieved smoke-free status—thanks largely to widespread use of snus and, more recently, nicotine pouches. Sweden’s male lung cancer mortality rate is 61% lower than the EU average, and its total cancer death rate is 34% lower.
Patrik Strömer, secretary general of the Association of Swedish Snus Manufacturers, believes the EU should adopt the Swedish model. “Before they were regulated as a product, nicotine pouches were regulated by the Ministry of Finance. There’s a decent but substantial excise tax on pouches in Sweden. I think politicians will have to ask themselves whether they want to raise money for the government or create better public health.”
Sweden currently taxes pouches at SEK207 (US$21.88) per kg—lower than the SEK432 per kg applied to snus. “We now have two smoke-free generations, according to the public health agency’s latest data,” Strömer says. “Across the EU, it’s highly unlikely that nicotine pouches are as dangerous as smoking. Every person who quits or avoids smoking by using these products is a win for society. We have a chance to create a tax policy that supports public health—but we risk losing that opportunity if Brussels ignores what actually works.”
A growing divide
Media have already described the EU’s diverging national positions on nicotine pouches and other novel nicotine products as a “product war.” This fragmentation is one reason the revision of the indefinitely postponed Tobacco Products Directive (TPD3) remains stalled in the evaluation and impact assessment phase. TPD3, meant to replace the current TPD that entered into force in 2014 and does not yet cover tobacco-free nicotine pouches, is expected to harmonize rules for emerging nicotine products, including pouches, by introducing standards for marketing, age restrictions, nicotine content, and packaging. A draft proposal is not expected before 2026.
Strömer outlines four scenarios for future EU policy on pouches: “A ban, bloc-wide adoption of the Swedish model, very bad regulation like Spain’s—with a ridiculous nicotine cap and flavor bans—or a compromise where there’s a higher cap but the market is stifled to protect cigarettes. With more political finesse, though, you could have a flexible minimum directive allowing member states to adapt to local needs.”
Both Strömer and Henriquez believe an EU-wide ban—like the one imposed on snus in 1992 with an exemption for Sweden—is unlikely. “There’s appetite to do that,” Henriquez says, “but I don’t know if there will be enough consensus to repeat something like that. The science shows these are reduced-risk products that can lower smoking rates, so I think regulators will struggle to justify a comprehensive ban. But tighter restrictions on flavors, nicotine levels, and product features are certainly possible.”
Sweden finally speaks up
Despite three decades of data supporting the harm reduction potential of snus, efforts to lift the EU-wide ban have failed. Sweden’s government had long remained silent about its tobacco control success—dubbed the “Swedish experience”—even during key forums like COP10 of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, where the EU must present a unified position on behalf of all member states and Sweden’s smoking-reduction success was not mentioned.
But that silence appears to be ending. In April and May 2025, Sweden submitted formal objections to the European Commission against Spain’s draft law on nicotine pouches and France’s national ban.
In its objection to Spain, Sweden argued the proposal violates EU internal market rules and creates unjustified trade barriers. Regarding France, the Swedish opinion claims that Paris failed to prove nicotine pouches pose a “genuine and significant public health risk” and that less restrictive tools, such as age limits and nicotine caps, had proven effective elsewhere. Moreover, the ban risks “causing serious damage to free movement” within the EU.
Although not binding, these objections—called detailed opinions—are the strongest tool available under EU notification procedures. While they don’t block national action outright, they de-lay implementation by at least six months and require the proposing country to justify its approach.
In an interview, Sweden’s trade minister explained that the country filed the objections to challenge policymakers in Brussels and other capitals seeking to ban or restrict safer nicotine alternatives—products that could potentially save thousands of lives across the EU.
Strömer welcomes the shift: “Sweden’s silence on EU tobacco and nicotine policy was becoming concerning. It’s important the government takes a stand to protect consumer choice—and an important Swedish industry.”