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Illicit cigarettes seized by the Australian Border Force. Photo credit: ABF
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Source: Eurostat
*The displayed data is from 2023. Sweden has since achieved “smoke-free” status, i.e. adult smoking prevalence has dropped below 5%.
Apart from Sweden, most EU member states remain a long way from achieving the EU’s 5% “smoke-free” status target, earmarked for 2040.
Credit: Eurostat
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TOAT governor Poomjit Pongpanngam. Photo credit: TOAT
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Pointful is IKT’s flagship brand. Photo credit: IKT
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International Korea Tobacco’s Diane Jang. Photo credit: IKT
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TOAT’s modern production and logistics facility in Ayutthaya province, 60km north of Bangkok. Photo credit: TOAT
Why the world’s oldest nicotine product is not going the way of the dodo just yet.
For more than half a century, the conventional cigarette has been portrayed as a product living on borrowed time. Since the landmark public-health campaigns of the 1960s, governments have tightened regulations, raised excise taxes, banned advertising, introduced plain packaging, restricted smoking in public places, and promoted cessation programs. More recently, a new generation of reduced-risk nicotine products (RRP)—including vaping devices, heated tobacco products (HTP), and nicotine pouches—has challenged cigarettes for the first time in their centuries-long dominance of the global nicotine market.
On the surface, the evidence appears overwhelming. Adult smoking prevalence has fallen steadily across much of the developed world. Sweden has effectively become Europe’s first “smoke-free” country. Australia reports continuous declines in legal cigarette sales. Multinational tobacco companies increasingly derive significant revenue from RRP or smoke-free alternatives rather than combustible products. Yet the conclusion frequently drawn—that we are witnessing the inevitable demise of cigarettes—deserves closer scrutiny.
The reality is considerably more nuanced. Combustible cigarettes undoubtedly face unprecedented challenges, but they also continue to command enormous global demand. In many regions, smoking prevalence remains stubbornly high. Surges in illicit trade increasingly distort official statistics. Manufacturers continue to invest in cigarette brands while simultaneously diversifying into RRP. Rather than disappearing, cigarettes appear to be entering an era of coexistence with alternative nicotine products.
Declining—but not disappearing
Few would dispute that cigarette smoking has entered a period of long-term decline in many mature markets. Thailand provides a representative example. According to the Tobacco Authority of Thailand (TOAT), the number of smokers aged 15 years and above declined from approximately 10.8 million people in 2007 to around 9.8 million in 2024, reducing adult smoking prevalence from 21.2% to 16.5%. TOAT attributes this decline to decades of comprehensive tobacco-control measures, including higher excise taxes, smoke-free legislation, advertising restrictions, and sustained public-health campaigns.
Yet TOAT governor Poomjit Pongpanngam cautioned against interpreting declining cigarette consumption as the disappearance of the industry itself. “The tobacco industry is undergoing a transition rather than disappearing altogether,” he explained during a recent interview with Tobacco Asia. Manufacturers, he argued, must adapt through operational improvements, product innovation, diversification, and expansion into export markets to remain sustainable.
That distinction between decline and extinction forms perhaps the central theme of today’s global tobacco industry. Consumption patterns are changing, but demand for nicotine—and for combustible cigarettes in particular—remains substantial.
Sweden is the exception, not the rule
Much attention has focused on Sweden’s apparent achievement of reducing adult smoking prevalence to approximately 5%, thereby reaching the European Union’s (EU’s) benchmark for being considered “smoke-free.” Sweden is frequently cited as one of the world’s leading tobacco-control success stories. However, that success should not be misinterpreted as evidence that cigarettes have become irrelevant in the Nordic nation. After all, 5% remains 5%. Yes, millions of Swedish adults have abandoned cigarettes, largely through switching to alternative nicotine products such as snus. Yet a residual population of smokers continues to exist. More importantly, Sweden remains an outlier rather than a representative model for the EU.
As Tommaso Di Giovanni, a global communications leader for regulatory & corporate affairs, noted in a recent article on LinkedIn, Sweden achieved results that no other EU member state has matched, largely because it permitted widespread adoption of smoke-free alternatives while maintaining the country’s longstanding exemption from the EU’s ban on snus. He argued that countries focusing solely on restricting cigarettes without facilitating access to lower-risk alternatives have generally progressed much more slowly. The EU’s long-term objective is to reduce smoking prevalence below 5% across all member states by 2040. Yet most countries remain well above that threshold, illustrating just how difficult it is to simply eliminate combustible cigarette consumption entirely.
Australia’s statistical mirage
Australia is frequently presented as another example of cigarette smoking’s apparent collapse. Legal cigarette sales have indeed fallen dramatically over recent years, reinforcing the perception that smoking itself is rapidly disappearing from Down Under. Nevertheless, the picture becomes considerably more complicated once illicit trade is considered. As legal cigarettes have become too expensive for most consumers (a single premium brand pack costing up to A$65 these days), illicit tobacco reportedly now accounts for an extraordinarily large share of Australia’s tobacco and nicotine consumption. Excessive excise taxation and increasingly restrictive regulation have un-intentionally fueled an expanding underground market supplied by organized criminal networks. Official legal sales therefore may fail to reflect actual consumption.
The scale of the illicit trade is illustrated by a recent Australian Border Force (ABF) operation, which seized more than 13.7 million illicit cigarettes, over 27,000 illegal vaping devices, and more than 30,000 nicotine pouches during coordinated raids targeting organized crime syndicates across Queensland. Australia therefore raises an important question for policymakers worldwide. Declining legal cigarette sales do not necessarily equate to declining cigarette consumption if consumers increasingly migrate toward untaxed, unregulated, illicit products.
A global market still measured in hundreds of millions
While Western Europe, North America, Australia, and New Zealand often dominate discussions surrounding successes in tobacco control, they represent only part of the global picture. Across much of East Asia, South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, Eastern Europe, and parts of Africa, adult smoking prevalence remains comparatively high. These regions continue to account for enormous volumes of combustible cigarette consumption and remain strategically important markets for manufacturers.
TOAT itself illustrates this continuing global demand. Despite declining domestic consumption, the organization continues exporting cigarettes commercially to Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia, and New Zealand, while simultaneously exporting tobacco leaf to customers across Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and the United States. Rather than abandoning cigarettes, TOAT is actively strengthening export activities as part of its long-term business strategy.
Meanwhile, a South Korean company, International Korea Tobacco (IKT), similarly sees considerable future opportunities, particularly throughout Asia. Chief financial officer Diane Jang told Tobacco Asia that markets such as Indonesia and parts of Central Asia remain receptive to new cigarette brands because consumers continue seeking out new taste experiences – which helps products such as IKT’s flagship brand Pointful experience strong demand. “IKT emphasizes long-term relationships with consumers who continue to value combustible products,” said Jang.
Competition has changed the rules
If cigarettes are not disappearing, they are nevertheless facing the most formidable competition in their history. The emergence of vaping products, heated tobacco products, and nicotine pouches has fundamentally reshaped the nicotine marketplace. According to IKT’s Diane Jang, these innovations have created entirely new market segments rather than simply improving existing cigarette products. Yet she rejected the frequently repeated claim that this automatically signals the end of conventional cigarettes.
Instead, Jang described today’s market as entering “a transitional period” in which consumers increasingly recognize both the advantages and limitations of alternative products. While many appreciate the convenience and technological innovation of vaping or heated tobacco, others continue valuing what she describes as “the unique experience provided by conventional cigarettes.” Consequently, IKT expects the next decade to be characterized by coexistence rather than replacement.
This assessment closely mirrors TOAT’s outlook. Governor Poomjit Pongpanngam similarly concluded during his interview that while cigarettes are steadily losing their dominant position, their complete disappearance remains unlikely because persistent nicotine demand, comparatively high smoking prevalence across many developing markets, and enduring consumer preferences continue supporting combustible products.
Are cigarettes becoming “fashionable” again?
One of the more intriguing – and controversial – developments in recent months has been the emergence of reports on various social media suggesting that cigarette smoking may be experiencing a degree of cultural rehabilitation among certain demographic groups. Social media platforms occasionally feature influencers and celebrities smoking cigarettes, while some trend analysts have pointed to a “revival of aesthetics” associated with earlier decades when smoking carried connotations of sophistication, rebellion, or glamour. Such claims should be approached cautiously, though. Isolated cultural trends do not necessarily translate into meaningful increases in smoking prevalence. Public health awareness remains far stronger than in previous generations, and the overwhelming body of medical evidence concerning smoking-related disease remains widely understood.
Nevertheless, consumer behavior rarely follows a straight line. Markets evolve through cycles of acceptance, rejection, and reinvention. While cigarettes are unlikely to regain the social prominence they enjoyed during much of the twentieth century, the possibility that certain consumer segments may continue embracing combustible products for reasons of identity, ritual, perceived authenticity – or because they are “trendy” or “cool” – should not be dismissed outright.
Indeed, this notion of authenticity emerges repeatedly in the comments provided by IKT. Diane Jang argued that the industry’s increasing focus on alternative nicotine products may inadvertently create opportunities for cigarette brands that emphasize the traditional, “authentic” smoking experience. Rather than chasing ever more elaborate technological innovations, IKT has chosen to focus on cigarette blending, taste profiles, and what the company describes as the “essence” of combustible tobacco.
The Korean outfit believes many consumers continue to value experiences that vaping devices and heated tobacco products cannot fully replicate. Whether this represents a niche opportunity or a broader trend remains uncertain. Yet it demonstrates that some manufacturers continue to perceive meaningful commercial potential in conventional cigarettes.
The nicotine market is becoming more complex Another reason why predictions about the extinction of cigarettes should be treated cautiously is that the nicotine market-place itself is becoming increasingly difficult to measure. Allen Zhao, co-founder and c.e.o. of China-based tobacco industry platform 2Firsts, argued in a recent editorial that traditional met-rics used to evaluate tobacco markets are becoming less relevant in a world increasingly dominated by multiple nicotine-delivery technologies.
In Zhao’s analysis of Philip Morris International’s 2025 results, smoke-free products accounted for more than 40% of company revenues while representing less than one-quarter of shipment volume. The traditional relationship between product volume and economic value has therefore become increasingly disconnected. This matters because many discussions concerning the future of cigarettes focus almost exclusively on declining cigarette volumes. Yet a shrinking cigarette market does not necessarily indicate a shrinking nicotine market. Consumers may be substituting products rather than abandoning nicotine altogether.
The distinction is crucial. For much of modern history, the tobacco industry and the nicotine industry were effectively regarded as one and the same thing. Today, they are increasingly diverging. Cigarettes remain the largest single nicotine category globally, but they now operate within a broader ecosystem that includes vaping products, heated tobacco products, oral nicotine pouches, and future innovations yet to emerge. As a result, the future of cigarettes cannot be evaluated in isolation. Their prospects are intertwined with the evolution of the wider nicotine marketplace.
Coexistence rather than elimination
Perhaps the strongest argument against the imminent disappearance of cigarettes comes from the tobacco industry itself. Although manufacturers are investing billions into alternative products, few major players appear to believe that combustible cigarettes will vanish anytime soon. A spokesperson for Japan Tobacco International (JTI) recently summarized this position to Tobacco Asia most succinctly, stating that the company expects combustible and non-combustible products to coexist for the foreseeable future. Consumer demand, rather than regulatory aspirations alone, will continue influencing market outcomes. Regulations may accelerate or slow transitions, but ultimately adult consumers will determine which products survive.
The same conclusion emerges from TOAT and IKT. TOAT’s governor Poomjit Pongpanngam acknowledged the pressures facing cigarettes—higher taxes, stricter regulations, alternative nicotine products, and illicit trade—but nevertheless asserted that complete disappearance remains unlikely because nicotine demand remains strong and smoking prevalence remains significant in many developing markets.
Similarly, IKT’s Diane Jang rejected the narrative of an approaching endgame. She characterized the next decade not as “the end of tobacco,” but rather as “the restructuring of the tobacco market.” In her view, future competition will increasingly revolve around brands, consumer experiences, and value propositions rather than the outright victory of one nicotine category over another.
These perspectives may originate from industry stakeholders, but they are consistent with broader market realities. Cigarettes are losing market share in many jurisdictions, yet they retain hundreds of millions of consumers worldwide.
Enormous headwinds, but no “goodbye forever” yet
The future of cigarettes is neither one of triumphant resurgence nor imminent extinction. There is little doubt that combustible tobacco faces enormous headwinds. Smoking prevalence continues to decline in many countries. Regulatory pressures are intensifying. Alternative nicotine products increasingly attract smokers seeking potentially lower-risk options. Public health authorities remain committed to reducing smoking rates further. Yet the evidence suggests that reports of cigarettes’ inevitable death remain premature.
Sweden’s success demonstrates that smoking can be dramatically reduced, but even Sweden has not eliminated cigarettes entirely. Australia’s experience illustrates how legal sales figures can be distorted by expanding illicit markets. Across large portions of Asia, Eastern Europe, and MENA, smoking prevalence remains substantial. Meanwhile, manufacturers continue investing in cigarette brands, export markets, and product innovation because they still perceive enduring demand. New players continue to emerge. The story is far from over.
The combustible cigarette may no longer dominate the nicotine landscape as completely as it once did. It may become a smaller, more specialized category within a diversified marketplace. It may continue surrendering market share to vaping products, heated tobacco products, and nicotine pouches. But extinction is another matter entirely. The story unfolding is not the swan song of cigarettes. It is the transformation of a market that, after more than a century of near-total dominance by one product category, is finally becoming something far more complex.
Palau’s Bid to Make Nicotine a Controlled Substance
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In June 2026, the Pacific island nation of Palau attracted international attention by supporting a proposal that seeks to classify nicotine alongside controlled substances regulated under international drug-control frameworks. The country argued that nicotine dependence warrants treatment under stricter international mechanisms than those currently applied to tobacco and nicotine products.
As Peter Beckett of cleaningtheair.eu reported, the proposal generated considerable controversy. Critics reacted that equating nicotine with substances such as methamphetamine or ecstasy ignores the substantial scientific distinction between combustible tobacco use and non-combustible nicotine products. They further contended that classifying nicotine as a controlled substance could severely restrict access to reduced-risk alternatives such as vaping products and nicotine pouches.
Supporters, meanwhile, maintain that nicotine addiction remains a significant public-health concern deserving stronger international over-sight. The debate is important because it highlights a broader question confronting regulators worldwide: Should future tobacco control policies focus primarily on eliminating nicotine use altogether, or should they encourage transitions away from combustible smoking toward lower-risk nicotine products?
The answer may significantly influence the future trajectory not only of cigarettes, but of the entire global nicotine market. As policymakers continue debating these issues, the outcome of Palau’s initiative could become a closely watched indicator of the direction international tobacco-control policy will take during the coming decade.