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Despite the harsh weather, much of the flue-cured crop - like this produced in Oxford, NC - turned out quite well.
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A south Georgia greenhouse was crushed by Hurricane Debby.
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A river in Mitchell County, NC that has washed away most of its banks thanks to Hurricane Helene.
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Steve Troxler, NC commissioner of agriculture.
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Rick Smith, president of Independent Leaf Tobacco.
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Graham Boyd, executive director, Tobacco Growers Association of NC.
Flue-cured growers took a pasting from weather events and came up short of pounds. Burley and dark growers had some bad weather too but fared better at harvest.
The 2024 flue-cured crop will be remembered as the crop that couldn’t catch a break, says Rick Smith, president of Independent Leaf Tobacco, a leaf dealer in Wilson, NC. “It was dry, it was wet, there were hurricanes…it was one thing after another.”
It wasn’t just that there were two hurricanes, said Steve Troxler, NC commissioner of agriculture. “It was that we already were in the middle of a disaster when they got here.” The resulting yield loss was doubly unfortunate, said Troxler, because there was unusual demand for flue-cured this season. “We could have sold a lot more if we’d had it to sell,” Troxler said. “I would say that we will end up with only a 60% tobacco crop [in NC].
The crop was short, Smith agreed. “Most everyone [among the buyers] came up short. I know I did. We need a barn buster next year to make up for this.” The damage from Helene was nowhere near the wreckage that Debby caused. One reason is that harvest was for all practical purposes complete when Helene arrived. Some tobacco was still curing, and that caused some problems where the power went out. One side effect of the weather was that there was more of a market for pickings than usual; Moore says a lot of them went for US$1 a pound, a higher price than usual.
Moore estimated that Georgia-Florida growers marketed only 55% of expected production. Flue-cured sold well at the four auction houses, which are all in central CC, says Tommy Faulkner, auction manager for American Tobacco Exchange in Wilson, NC. “The quality was good, very usable,” he says. “The crop was short, by maybe 20-25%. But growers did a good job of holding their tobacco in the field until they could get it harvested.” Buyers seemed pleased with what they got, and prices ranged generally from US$1.85 to US$2.55 a pound. The last auction sales took place in mid-November. There are no auctions for any other types.
The leaf dealer Smith reflected the opinion of most observers of this market when he said. “Under the circumstances, it’s a miracle that so much of the crop turned out as well as it did.”
The chronology of a bad year
The 2024 flue-cured crop began with great promise in terms of field and production, says Graham Boyd, executive director, Tobacco Growers Association of NC.
“But by June that potential began to diminish. Many growers went most of June with zero measurable rainfall and record high temperatures.” July brought with it a series of severe weather patterns that included a lot of rain and strong winds. Numerous single events could have as much as eight to nine inches of rain in a short period of time accompanied by 50 mile per hour or stronger winds. Such weather is typical in the summer months in the Southeast, Boyd said, but usually it is isolated in terms of geographical impact.
What was most unusual this summer was that the systems moved in solid lines from west to east across the state and nearly every grower was impacted. “A majority of our growers found themselves having to re-stand wind-blown tobacco an average of three times, and some even experienced as many as five to six wind events.”
August brought with it the first North Carolina landfall hurricane of the season, Hurricane Debby. The path it traveled from Florida to Pennsylvania was such that it touched every acre of tobacco grown on the eastern seaboard.
Growers went into “salvage” mode to mitigate the effects of Hurricane Debby. “It was impressive how successful our farmers proved to be at efforts to mitigate storm impacts,” said Boyd. “Everything from re-standing tobacco once again, to adjustments in fertility and curing practices to try and rescue the crop and deliver the best quality possible.”
The markets responded in a supportive way. “We know that worldwide there is a tight supply of tobacco at this time so naturally the demand is strong,” Boyd says. “Most growers remarked that grading and pricing were considerate of the difficulties encountered by weather this season.”
Input prices were very high. “We knew [before the season began] that the 2024 crop was going to be the most expensive flue-cured crop we have ever grown,” said Boyd.
“When you add the [extra 2024] costs of wind mitigation (an average of US$250 per acre in labor to re-stand the crop each time) along with diminished yields due to the multiple weather events, all that simply makes margins razor thin and often negative for the [individual] farm.”
Burley and dark types
The 2024 growing season was another challenging year for burley and dark farmers but nowhere near the disaster that flue-cured growers experienced. The challenges ranged from extreme weather events to dramatically changing tobacco product markets. Nevertheless, burley and dark growers were expected to enjoy a good market, though not an exceptional one. It got going in earnest in early December,
“Yes, there were some curing quality issues, and there were pockets where yields were disappointing,” said Will Snell, Kentucky Extension agricultural economist, in a report to the Burley and Dark Tobacco Producers Association. “But overall, prices will likely improve modestly over last year’s prices, although heightened labor and other higher input costs will continue to erode profit margins.”
This may be the first time since 1955 that the value of tobacco production in Kentucky has fallen below U$200 million, he adds. On a positive note, the US burley sector has seen some rebound in leaf exports. But given the radical decline that exports had taken in previous years, US burley is dependent primarily on sales of domestic tobacco products, as is the US dark tobacco sector.
Burley supplies remain tight globally, but the supply/demand balance is not as tight as it has been in recent years given a significant decline in US cigarette sales. Historically, US cigarette sales have declined at a 3-4% annual pace, but the decline has accelerated in recent years to nearly 10% annually.
The US dark tobacco industry continues to be plagued by the entry of nicotine pouches. That market is growing at an annual 30%+ pace compared to 6-8% annual decline among major snuff products.
What’s the outlook for burley in 2025? The industry will likely continue to lose growers as profit margins remain thin, says Snell. He thinks the significant factors will be:
- limited leaf price increases,
- yield expectations
- wage rate hikes
- labor challenges, and
- company requirements.
Given swings in tobacco product markets and anticipated increased production levels overseas, total needs for US burley and dark tobaccos may continue to fall. But individual grower contract volume may remain near recent levels due to attrition of growers. Continued strong cattle prices will entice some away from declining profit margins realized in tobacco. “But anticipated weak grain markets may encourage some farmers in the dark tobacco regions to hang in there for another growing season given labor and infrastructure availability,” said Snell.
Crop chronologies for burley and dark
Burley: A very wet May gave way to a dry summer and early fall across much of the burley belt, says Bob Pearce, Kentucky Extension tobacco specialist. The wet spring delayed planting and led to most of the crop being planted in June and some up into July.
Mild to moderate drought conditions were observed in Kentucky and Tennessee throughout the growing season but many growers received just enough rainfall to have burley crops with above average yield prospects. Dry weather in August and September meant harvesting was able to progress well until the remnants of Hurricane Helene blew through in late September. Fortunately, damage to tobacco crops from Helene was relatively minor, and in fact the lingering moisture associated with the storm greatly improved the color of tobacco in mid-cure at the time.
Continued dry weather through October and into November resulted in later crops having some high color. Growers with tobacco in that situation were advised to let those crops hang in the curing barn as long as possible, with the hope that the color would be brought down and grading improved.
Dark: The 2024 dark tobacco crop in western Kentucky and Tennessee started with a very wet May. “There were only a few days in the beginning and end of the month suitable for transplanting tobacco,” says Andy Bailey, Kentucky extension tobacco specialist.
As a result, most of the crop was transplanted later than usual, in June and even into the first few days of July.
The region had good, timely rain-fall with minimal disease from late June until the end of July, and these six weeks of good growing conditions resulted in a good dark tobacco crop for most growers. Angular leaf spot damage was minimal compared to 2023.
Weather conditions turned from good to very dry from the first of August until Hurricane Helene brought significant rain in late September.
These dry conditions during early curing resulted in less than average quality (lighter color) for dark air-cured crops harvested in August, and even lighter color with less smoke finish in some dark-fired crops harvested in August.
Crops harvested in September through early October had more favorable curing conditions and better color. Like the lighter colored earlier burley crops this year, dark crops that are light in color will benefit from being left hanging longer in the barn. Yields from dark-fired and dark air-cured tobacco will be good to above average this year. Overall quality may be a bit less than average due to light color.