Dutch smokers aren’t quitting despite higher cigarette prices; they’re seeking alternative sources to obtain cigarettes. Photo credit: Pixabay
According to recent data published by market intelligence firm WSPM, Dutch smokers are increasingly purchasing cigarettes abroad, particularly in neighboring Germany and Belgium, where prices are lower. As part of the research, 7,000 empty cigarette packs were collected from waste and rubbish bins. In the fourth quarter of 2024, 39% of these packs were found to have originated from abroad, with approximately 5% being counterfeit. This marks a significant increase compared to the previous year, when only 25% of the packs came from outside the Netherlands.
The Dutch tobacco industry lobby group VSK interprets this trend as evidence that smokers are not quitting but rather seeking alternative sources to obtain cigarettes.
In 2024, the Netherlands implemented several measures aimed at reducing smoking rates. The country’s National Prevention Agreement sets a goal of creating a tobacco-free generation—defined as a society with smoking prevalence below five percent—by 2040. In 2022, nearly 19% of Dutch adults were smokers.
Among the measures was a substantial increase in excise duties on April 1, 2024. This raised the average price of a 20-pack of cigarettes to approximately €11.10, with taxes accounting for about €7.81 of the price. Rolling tobacco also saw an excise duty hike of €3.60 per 50-gram pack, bringing its average price to €24.14. The excise duty on cigars and cigarillos was set at 11 percent of the sales price. The government has plans for further price increases, with projected cigarette prices ranging between €30 and €47 per pack by 2040.
The Netherlands has also introduced restrictions on the sales outlets of tobacco products. Since July 1, 2024, supermarkets have been prohibited from selling cigarettes and novel nicotine products. By 2032, tobacco sales will be restricted exclusively to specialist shops.
The sharp rise in tobacco taxes has coincided with an increase in illicit tobacco trade. According to DutchNews.nl, customs officials repeatedly seized large quantities of contraband cigarettes at ports and warehouses throughout 2024. By August of that year, approximately 120 million so-called illicit whites had been confiscated—matching the total number of seizures in 2023, with four months still remaining in the year.
Cross-border purchases and illicit trade result in significant tax losses for the Dutch government. In 2023, tobacco tax revenues amounted to €3.1 billion, up from €2.6 billion in 2019. However, early indicators suggest that 2024 revenues will fall short of government targets by €500 million.
The Dutch government has also made it more difficult for smokers to switch to less harmful alternatives. E-cigarettes remain cheaper than combustible cigarettes, as they are currently subject only to the standard ad valorem tax. However, since January 1, 2023, e-cigarette liquid sales have been restricted to tobacco flavors only, and online sales of e-cigarettes—regardless of nicotine content—have been banned since July 1, 2023. As of January 1, 2025, e-cigarettes are available for purchase only in specialist shops.
Heated tobacco products (HTP) are largely regulated as traditional tobacco products in the Netherlands and taxed under the smoking tobacco category. In 2020, the smoking ban was extended to include e-cigarettes, and by 2022, advertising restrictions and other regulatory measures were applied to HTP devices. This means that HTP use is prohibited in all areas where traditional smoking is banned, such as public spaces, workplaces, and hospitality venues. Additionally, in October 2023, a ban was introduced prohibiting the addition of characteristic flavors to HTP.
Since January 1, 2025, the sale of all nicotine pouches has been banned in the Netherlands. The use of nicotine pouches and other tobacco-free nicotine products is also prohibited in areas where smoking is not allowed.