Last year, the EU’s illicit cigarette consumption reached its highest level since 2015. Photo credit: Oxfordian Kissuth, CC3.0.
A 2024 KPMG report, commissioned by Philip Morris Products SA, reveals that nearly one in ten cigarettes smoked in the European Union last year came from illicit sources. Across the 27 EU member states, consumers used more than 38.9 billion illegal cigarettes in 2024. France topped the list as Europe’s largest illicit market, with 18.7 billion illegal cigarettes consumed—making up 37.6% of the country’s total usage. The Netherlands also saw a dramatic surge, with illicit cigarette consumption more than doubling year-on-year by over 1.1 billion, now accounting for 17.9% of total consumption.
Philip Morris reiterated its call for more effective policy responses to tackle the illicit trade. In 2024, the EU’s illicit cigarette consumption reached its highest level since 2015, with 38.9 billion illegal cigarettes making up 9.2% of total consumption. As governments across Europe face economic challenges, the estimated tax losses—up to €14.9 billion (US$16.1 billion)—underscore the urgency of decisive action.
Across all 38 countries included in the study—which covers the EU along with Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Norway, Serbia, Switzerland, Ukraine, and the UK—illicit consumption totaled 52.2 billion cigarettes in 2024, or 10% of all cigarette use. This translates to an estimated €19.4 billion (US$20.9 billion) in lost tax revenue.
The report attributes much of the rise to developments in France and the Netherlands. In France alone, 18.7 billion illicit cigarettes were consumed, of which nearly 7.8 billion were counterfeits. In the Netherlands, illicit volumes grew by over 1.1 billion cigarettes—doubling within a year. The tax losses were significant: France missed out on €9.4 billion (US$10.1 billion), while the Netherlands forfeited nearly €900 million (US$970 million).
The UK, while still ranking third in Europe for illicit cigarette consumption, saw volumes fall by 0.8 billion in 2024. However, its share of total use remained steady, with 5.9 billion illegal cigarettes consumed.
For the first time, the KPMG study also assessed the illicit market for heated tobacco products in select European countries, including the Czech Republic, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Spain, and the UK.
The findings show that 0.4 billion illicit heated tobacco sticks were consumed across these countries in 2024, making up 0.9% of total usage. Germany recorded the highest volume at 0.15 billion sticks, followed by Poland with 0.08 billion. The UK had the highest proportion of contraband heated tobacco, accounting for 7.8% of its total consumption.