UK legal tobacco sales dropped by over 50%, outpacing the more modest decline in smoking rates. Photo credit: Kseniya Korotkaya, Pexels.
Legal tobacco sales in the United Kingdom have fallen by more than half since 2021, according to an analysis of newly released data from HM Revenue and Customs.
Recent government figures show that legal cigarette sales dropped 52% over the past 4 years, following a series of substantial tax increases.
The scale of the decline outpaces changes in smoking rates. Surveys show a more modest reduction in the number of smokers, and studies indicate that smokers have not significantly cut their daily consumption in recent years.
The volume of manufactured cigarettes sold legally fell 46%, from 23.4 billion sticks in 2021 to 12.6 billion sticks in 2025. Sales of rolling tobacco dropped even more sharply, declining 59% from 8.6 million kilograms to 3.6 million kilograms.
Using HMRC’s methodology to convert rolling tobacco into cigarette equivalents, Dr. Christopher Snowdon, head of lifestyle economics at the Institute of Economics Affairs, calculated that 19.8 billion cigarettes were sold legally in 2025, compared with 40.6 billion in 2021.
During the same period, the government raised excise duties repeatedly. Since 2020, cigarette excise taxes have increased by 73%, while duties on rolling tobacco have climbed 115%. Despite those hikes, tobacco duty revenue has fallen from £10.4 billion [US$13.2 billion] in 2021 to £7.9 billion [US$10 billion], marking the lowest level on record after adjusting for inflation.
Researchers have found that cigarette consumption per smoker has remained broadly stable. While estimates of smoking prevalence differ, none indicate a decline approaching the 52% drop in legal sales.
Snowdon said the “inescapable conclusion” is that the illicit share of the tobacco market has grown enormously since 2020.
“The explosion of black market tobacco in recent years will not come as news to smokers, nor to anyone who pays attention to cigarette packs on the pavement and in beer gardens, but the dramatic decline in legal sales at a time when the number of smokers has been falling more modestly, is conclusive proof that we have a serious problem,” he said.