New Zealand's goal of becoming the smokefree by 2025 is now out of reach. Photo credit: Unsplash, Freerange Stock.
Time is running out for New Zealand, which had aimed to become the world’s second smokefree country after Sweden. The government’s Smokefree Aotearoa 2025 goal — defined by WHO as reducing smoking prevalence below 5% — is now considered out of reach.
Currently, about 300,000 New Zealanders still smoke daily. To meet the 2025 target, more than 80,000 would need to quit by year’s end — a figure experts deem unachievable, given that annual quit rates typically range between 20,000 and 40,000. Without significant policy change, analysts warn the goal may not be met until at least 2027, or much later for some groups.
Despite these setbacks, progress has been made. Smoking prevalence dropped from 16.4% in 2011/12 to 6.9% in 2023/24, down from 8% the previous year, according to associate health minister Casey Costello.
In February 2024, the government introduced the Smokefree Environments and Regulated Products Amendment Bill. Aimed at curbing tobacco and youth vaping, the bill bans disposable vapes, toughens penalties for sales to minors, and restricts sales near schools, marae, and childcare centers. It also regulates product safety and marketing, and encourages smokers to switch to less harmful alternatives.
Still, the Annual Health Survey released in November 2024 revealed no decline in daily or current smoking rates for the first time in years. In response, the government launched a “final push” late last year, promising to boost cessation services, community outreach, and enforcement. Costello emphasized a focus on supporting people across the “smokefree continuum,” from encouraging quit attempts to ensuring long-term abstinence.
Key to success, Costello stressed, would be targeting priority populations, including older smokers and Māori and Pacific peoples. A 2024 Public Health Communication Center report highlighted persistent inequities in smoking rates, particularly in disadvantaged areas. While Māori daily smoking declined from 17.1% to 14.5%, and Pacific people from 18.1% to 12.3%, projections show Māori smoking may not fall below 5% until 2040.
Controversy surrounds the government's decision to repeal the 2022 Labor-led Action Plan, which had included bold tobacco control measures. That plan aimed to slash tobacco retail outlets from 8,000 to under 600, introduce very low nicotine cigarettes from 2025, and enact a world-first generational smoking ban — permanently prohibiting cigarette sales to anyone born after 2008.
The first phase of the generational ban took effect in January 2023, making it illegal to sell or gift combustible tobacco to anyone born on or after January 1, 2009. The repeal of this plan sparked backlash from public health advocates, who argued it could have locked in low youth smoking rates permanently.
Others, however, were skeptical. Dr. Marewa Glover, director of the Centre of Research Excellence: Indigenous Sovereignty & Smoking, said the policies lacked real-world evidence: “No one in the world knows what would have resulted. We can only surmise, which is what modelling does.”
More regulations are set to take effect on June 17, including a full ban on disposable vape sales, display restrictions for vaping products at specialist retailers and online, and a prohibition on promotional tactics such as loyalty programs. Retailers will also be barred from communicating directly with customers about vaping products.