According to Statista, the US, the world’s largest vape market, will generate an estimated revenue of US$9.4 billion. Photo credit: Vibe By California, Pexels.
According to FDA data published in early June, only 71 vape shipments from China were recorded between 1-28 May—compared to nearly 1,200 during the same period in 2024. The dramatic drop reflects months of declining import volumes, driven by the economic pressure of steep tariffs on Chinese goods and intensified enforcement against unauthorized flavored vapes. According to the data, imports had fallen between 40-60% in February, March, and April, after Trump came into office, and collapsed in May.
Combined with the existing 25% levy from Trump’s first term, the levies imposed by the second Trump administration peaked at a total tariff rate of 170% in April. On 12 May, the US and China agreed to a 90-day truce—from 14 May until 8 July 2025—in their escalating trade war, reducing US tariffs on Chinese goods to 30%, which means that vape products are currently taxed at 55%.
According to a Reuters report, the tariffs, in combination with substantial vape seizures in February, have led to panic buying among US vape users, higher shopping costs, and increased risks at the border, after new FDA commissioner Marty Makary pledged to crack down on unauthorized vapes.
An article in The Atlantic in late April had speculated whether Trump’s extreme tariffs might inadvertently help solve America’s illicit vape problem. According to Statista, the US, the world’s largest vape market, will generate an estimated revenue of US$9.4 billion. However, since the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to date has authorized only 34 vape products, the rest of the market is illicit. Sales of popular unauthorized disposable brands such as Geek Bar—the most popular brand with sales of US$582.8 million in 2024 according to Circana—or EB Designs, which, in contrast to FDA-approved products, come in fruity flavors that make them more attractive to smokers using them as a cessation tool, are estimated to have accounted for around 70% of the US vape market in 2024.
But despite retailers reporting severe shortages and increased prices, and FDA recently making headlines with ramped-up enforcement against unauthorized imports—supported by actions from Customs and Border Protection—, the higher tariffs are not expected to curb consumer use. A spokesperson for British American’s US subsidiary told Reuters that tariffs would increase prices but probably not to the point where it is a barrier to usage. Vapes such as Geek Bar, which are priced at US$20, are thought to still be good value with a US$5 increase.
A return to tariffs above 100%, however, is thought to fuel the illicit market further, predicts Ecigator.com, arguing that such tariffs would create an enormous price chasm between legal, taxed vape products and illegal alternatives. While cigarette prices vary widely across US states, a disposable vape with the nicotine equivalent of a pack of cigarettes would cost roughly the same, or slightly less. If vape products become significantly more expensive—potentially approaching or exceeding the cost of cigarettes—the economic incentive to switch from smoking to vapes might disappear, with former smokers returning to combustible cigarettes. Much will hence depend on how US-China trade relations will develop after the truce has expired.
It also remains to be seen whether the disruption of the supply chain will be permanent—FDA’s data on vape shipments only represents vapes properly declared as such, hence it is just the tip of the iceberg of vape imports. Chinese manufacturers of unauthorized vape products have long found ways to avoid regulatory scrutiny in the US by disguising them in their shipments as other items entirely, such as shoes or toys.
With the new tariffs introduced, there’s a shift towards relocating production to other Southeast Asian countries that are less affected by Trump’s steep tariffs, with Indonesia and Malaysia emerging as key manufacturing hubs.