US Leaf Report

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Features

By Chris Bickers

The American leaf industry definitely did not need a bumper crop from the 2015 season.

Through the beginning of August, it was clear there wasn’t going to be one for either of the major tobacco types, although for different reasons.

The burley region was for the most part inundated with rain, especially in the two weeks beginning July 1. It was a situation reminiscent of the water-damaged crop of 2013, and estimates of lost yield potential ranged from 10-25% or more.

Flue-cured areas were for the most part hot and dry. It was not clear in early August whether there would be a significant yield loss or not, since flue-cured is resilient to drought and also since many flue-cured growers have access to irrigation. But a big crop seemed definitely out, and quality problems seemed likely.

It was very unclear how much acreage had actually been planted. Growers of both types had reportedly planted substantial acres without benefit of a contract, and there was little indication as to how much of an effect that would have of production.

BURLEY

Much of Kentucky had way too much water this summer, especially in the first two weeks of July, and some tobacco was severely damaged.

“Farmers from one end of the state to the other have had it too wet,” said Scott Travis, who farms near Louisville, Ky., in mid July. “Central and Eastern Kentucky suffered the most.” Even on the driest land, farmers have experienced significant yield loss, he said. Estimates of yield loss ranged from 10% to 15% to even a 25% reduction. “It would be possible for the crop to recover some if the weather is good,” he said. “But a major turnaround would be required.”

The rain fell almost daily in much of the state, said Bob Pearce, Kentucky extension tobacco specialist. “At one location it was reported to have fallen 14 out of the first 15 days of July,” he said. “Some of the crop may recover, but as a whole, it is not likely to regain its full potential.”

In Maysville, Ky., there had been around 15 inches of rain in the last month, a burley tobacco grower there said in mid July. “A measurable amount of acres have gone down from all of the rain. We were not able to cultivate 30 acres for a month” because of the rain.

Even harder hit may have been Ohio. “There was way too much water in June and July, and it fell on way too many days,” said David Dugan, Ohio extension tobacco agent. “Some places had as much as 28 inches of rain,” he said. That was during a stretch when rain fell on 30 out of 40 days. “The yield is going to be so poor in some fields that the grower won’t be able to justify the labor to house it.”

He thinks Ohio farmers have lost 50-60% of potential production.

In Tennessee, the burley crop experienced loss due to all the rainfall, particularly in middle Tennessee. Eric Walker, Tenn. extension tobacco specialist, isn’t ready to estimate the reduction in pounds, but he thinks it may be enough to offset to some degree the uncontracted acres that some Tennessee farmers planted back in the spring. The crop was about half topped by August 2.

In Wilson County, just east of Nashville, the county agent said, “Tobacco has been reported as mediocre here with hornworm and target spot being primary concerns.”

In North Carolina, the mountain burley crop in the western part of the state appeared to be as good as any ever produced, said Matthew Vann, NC extension tobacco specialist. “Barring poor weather in the next 30-45 days, this crop will be finished fairly soon. Again, assuming good curing conditions, leaf quality should be exceptional.”

FLUE-CURED

The crop in Georgia, which is all flue-cured, was 39% harvested by August 2. One county agent described it as “good to excellent.”

“We had some extensive heat that damaged the top the plant, but everyone is pretty upbeat now,” said J. Michael Moore, Georgia extension tobacco specialist. “There was greater than average incidence of tomato spotted wilt virus and some serious problems with black shank.” But he expects a normal yield of around 2,200 pounds per acre across the state, on about 12,500 acres. It might be a little on the thin side. In neighboring Florida harvest was well along at the beginning of August. Farmers had a very good crop. There has been adequate rainfall, and Moore expected a yield in the range of 2,600 pounds, on about 1,250 planted acres.

In South Carolina, the tobacco, all flue-cured, got off to a good start and fared reasonably till the dry spell set in. Grower Ben Teal of Patrick, S.C., in the Pee Dee area, said, “We had a good survival rate, and we have a good stand.” But more rain was much to be desired. Extension agent Kyle Daniel of Georgetown County said, “We avoided those huge rains (on May 11), so farmers were able to get into the fields all (that) week.”

In North Carolina, quality of the flue-cured leaf coming out of the barn reportedly ranged from moderate to exceptional as of August 1. “For the most part, all ripe leaf has been pulled, although there are still fields that remain untouched all over the state,” said Vann. “Dry weather continues to plague the vast majority of flue-cured growers, but showers over the past few weeks have made a decent crop in places. A little more rain would finish everything very nicely.”

But there are still problem areas. In Moore County in south central N.C., extremely hot, dry conditions adversely impacted tobaccos. “Lugs on tobacco are scalded, particularly in late- topped fields,” said Taylor Williams, extension agent. In the area from Raleigh to Wilson, a large portion of the region is very dry, leading to a general worsening of crop conditions, said Don Nicholson, regional agronomist for the state department of agriculture. “The tobacco crop is deteriorating rapidly in areas that have not received adequate rainfall in several weeks. Lower stalk quality is suffering.”

In Virginia, there was no significant rain in the last two weeks of July, but the flue-cured crop looked better than average, said Chris Brown, extension tobacco agent in Halifax County. “The yield could be better than average. We had enough rainfall to get it in top, and we can use irrigation if needed” from here on out.

In Lunenburg County, in the Southside like Halifax, tobacco agent Lindy Tucker said, “Water is flying on tobacco” from irrigation rigs. “We could use a little rain at this point. But it’s been a good year thus far.”

Kentucky-Tennessee Dark Types

The weather pattern was a little different in the dark tobacco producing areas of Kentucky and Tennessee. There was excess rain in the two weeks ending around July 10, but it turned dry with considerable heat and humidity.

“We have seen saturated soils, wet feet, and some drowning,” said Andy Bailey, extension dark tobacco specialist. “We may have suffered as much as a 10% loss in production so far, but some of it could be recovered.” Crops on better drained soils that didn’t get too much rain looked good. But heavy winds caused damage in some areas that left stalks crooked. “That may make it difficult to use ‘rundown’ application of sucker control chemicals,” he said. “We might wind up using more Maleic Hydrazide than normal. Some farmers might try to apply conventional chemicals with a backpack but that is very labor intensive.”

The US Department of Agriculture issued a planting estimate at the end of June. These projections follow, listed by type, state and with a notation of how the projections compare to actual plantings in 2014. They were gathered before the rains in burley states or the heat in flue-cured states.

FLUE-CURED: Total US planted acreage is estimated at 206,800 acres, down 16% from 2014. Individual state estimates and change from 2014: North Carolina – 160,000 acres, down 16%; Virginia – 19,500 acres, down 13%; South Carolina – 14,300 acres, down 9%; and Georgia – 13,000 acres, down 13%.

BURLEY: Total US – 84,000 acres, down 17%; Kentucky – 62,000 acres, down 18%; Tennessee – 13,000 acres, down 16%; Pennsylvania – 4,700 acres, down 7%; Ohio – 1,900 acres, down 5%; Virginia – 1,300 acres, down 13%; and North Carolina – 1,100 acres, down 21%.

OTHER TYPES: Fire-cured (Kentucky/Tennessee/Virginia) – 17,450 acres, down 6%. Dark air-cured (Kentucky/Tennessee) – 6,200 acres, up 1%. Cigar types (Connecticut/Massachusetts/Pennsylvania) – 4,500 acres, down 6%. Southern Maryland (Pa.) – 2,000 acres, no change.

The Blue Mold Epidemic That Wasn’t

There was one piece of good news in the states: fears of an outbreak of the fungal disease blue mold dissipated as August began, as none of the several incidences of blue mold developed enough to become virulent.

Back on June 2, there was justifiable concern when blue mold was found on burley transplants in Greene County in northeastern Tennessee. Curiously, the site was a greenhouse on the grounds of the University of Tennessee tobacco research station in Greeneville. No one expected the disease to turn up in such an extremely controlled environment, with extreme sanitation.

But as a state plant pathologist pointed out, the cause was apparently a shower of blue mold spores, presumably from the south, that was on such a small scale that affected only the one scale greenhouse.

Such a transmission is perfectly credible given the nature of the disease, which is spread by windblown spores that drop to the surface when the wind subsides.

The station staff destroyed all plants in the house and thoroughly sanitized it so that there certainly were no carried-over spores.

But since this appearance occurred early in the season when extensive rains could reasonably be expected in the area, farmers and tobacco professionals took a deep breath and hoped that blue mold would not make a comeback.

It didn’t. A small amount was found a few weeks later in a field near the greenhouse, and small amounts were also found in several nearby Tennessee counties and in Madison County, N.C, which adjoins Greene County to the south.

But there was not enough to create an economic problem in any of the locations. Some weren’t even treated except for early topping, which makes the plant less attractive to the disease.

A new fungicide was available to tobacco growers this season and another is expected next year. Both are effective on blue mold and more importantly, both are effective on the more problematic disease black shank. Presidio, marketed by Valent, was in limited use on farms and reportedly performed well. Orondis from SynGenta is expected to do well against both diseases, hopefully beginning in 2016. Still another, Zorvec from DuPont, which features low rates of application, could be labeled for tobacco in the not too distant future.